Placement Stability, Educational Continuity, and Adult Outcomes for Youth Aging Out of Foster Care: A Matched Cohort Study of 12,840 California Youth

This study investigates association between foster care placement stability and educational continuity during care with adult employment, housing stability, and criminal justice outcomes in California youth aging out at 18 within the context of child welfare research and social work, an area of growing scientific importance given its implications for foster placement stability policy, Fostering Connections Act extension design, and aging-out transitional support program evaluation. Using propensity-matched retrospective cohort using California DSS administrative data linked to employment (EDD), criminal justice (DOJ), and higher education (CCC) records through age 24, we examine multiple placement changes disrupting school enrollment continuity, peer relationships, and attachment stability, compounding educational deficits and adult workforce preparation deficits relative to general population peers in 12,840 youth aging out of foster care (2010-2015) matched 1:1 to 12,840 low-income general population youth followed to age 24 with EDD/DOJ/higher education linkage drawn from California DSS foster care administrative records linked to Employment Development Department, Department of Justice, and California Community College records. Results indicate that youth with 6+ placements have 2.4x higher odds of incarceration by age 24 (OR 2.38) and 48.4% employment rate versus 68.4% for matched controls; each additional placement is associated with 4.8% lower probability of any postsecondary enrollment (p < 0.001), with OR 2.38 incarceration for 6+ placements; 48.4% vs. 68.4% employment in matched comparison as the primary quantitative benchmark. Concordance between primary and confirmatory measurement approaches exceeded 93%, validating the analytical framework. These findings contribute empirically to child welfare research and social work and carry actionable implications for the design of programs and policies targeting foster placement stability policy, Fostering Connections Act extension design, and aging-out transitional support program evaluation.