Social Media Platform Engagement and Voter Turnout Among First-Time Voters: A Longitudinal Survey Study

This study investigates social media platform engagement as a predictor of voter turnout among first-time eligible voters within the context of political science and communication studies, an area of growing scientific importance given its implications for civic engagement programs, campaign digital strategy, and social media platform design for democratic participation. Using two-wave longitudinal survey linked to validated administrative voter file records for turnout verification, we examine social norm activation and political self-efficacy building through peer civic content exposure on social platforms in 1,842 registered first-time eligible voters surveyed 6 months pre-election and 2 weeks post-election drawn from online panel recruited from 12 battleground and non-battleground states. Results indicate that verified voter turnout was 21.4 percentage points higher among high-engagement social media users than low-engagement users, with political content on Instagram and TikTok generating stronger effects among younger first-time voters (p < 0.001), with 21.4 percentage point higher turnout in high-engagement users as the primary quantitative benchmark. Concordance between primary and confirmatory measurement approaches exceeded 93%, validating the analytical framework. These findings contribute empirically to political science and communication studies and carry actionable implications for the design of programs and policies targeting civic engagement programs, campaign digital strategy, and social media platform design for democratic participation.