India's 2026 Sugar Export Ban and Its Economic Effects: Evidence from Domestic Prices and Sugar-Sector Equities
Garv Malhotra
Abstract
Export restrictions are a standard tool for stabilising domestic commodity prices, and standard international trade theory predicts they should also raise international prices and lower the equity valuations of exposed producers, all in the same direction and at a similar speed. This study pairs an event-study method with a policy-evaluation framework. It examines daily wholesale prices for two benchmark domestic sugar grades (M30 and S30) around India's 13 May 2026 export ban, alongside three-day cumulative abnormal returns for twelve listed Indian sugar companies benchmarked against the Nifty 200. The three markets diverged. Domestic prices fell only 0.24% and 0.13% before recovering within four to eight trading days; international futures rose 2 to 3% in the predicted direction; and listed sugar equities posted a sustained three-day cumulative abnormal return of −7.19%, with losses widening rather than reversing. This pattern suggests that equity markets first repriced on the ban's headline rather than on firms' actual, smaller export exposure, and corrected only as firm-specific information arrived. The ban met its narrow domestic-stabilisation aim but at a real cost to producers and to international buyers, and it shows that a single policy shock can be absorbed at very different speeds across commodity and financial markets. The study contributes an integrated framework that links domestic price analysis, international price transmission, and event-study evidence within one policy episode.
