Observed and Perceived Climate Change Analysis in the Terai Region, Nepal

Climate change modifies temperature and precipitation patterns, which poses challenges to crop production in the Terai region of Nepal. This study analyzed spatial-temporal changes in temperature and precipitation across the Kailali, Chitwan, and Rautahat districts by examining 180 households from three indigenous groups (Chepang, Tharu, and Musahar) and utilizing meteorological data from 1985–2015. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests detected significant increasing trends in minimum and maximum temperatures at five stations, and increasing post-monsoon precipitation at six stations, while pre-monsoon, monsoon, and winter precipitation showed significant decreases. These findings align with local perceptions, confirming warming trends and changing rainfall patterns. Results support the formulation of effective climate adaptation strategies for indigenous communities in Nepal.