Comparative Analysis of US and Chinese Development Assistance to the Philippines: Influence on Philippine Policy on the South China Sea

This paper compares US and Chinese aid to the Philippines to assess their influence over Filipino foreign policy on the South China Sea from 2000-2022. It draws on AidData and US Official Foreign Assistance statistics to identify patterns in the composition and sectoral distribution of US and Chinese development assistance. Chinese assistance is primarily in the form of other official flows (OOFs), characterised by investment into large infrastructural development projects in the energy and transport and communications sectors. US aid is mainly in the form of official development assistance (ODA) focused on security assistance and social sector investment. Chinese infrastructure finance is associated with periods of diplomatic engagement, particularly under the Duterte administration, when economic agreements coincided with a more conciliatory approach to the South China Sea dispute. However, this influence proved uneven due to project delays, domestic institutional constraints, and low public trust in China. US assistance, by contrast, reinforces institutional and military linkages that shape long-term strategic behaviour, supporting more consistent Philippine maritime policy.